-Robert Larsen
The Governments Effect on Housing
A recent real estate report indicates that consumers may be taking their time house hunting this winter, which some economists believe could lead to a “double dip” in home prices. A recent report from the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (NAR) showed that its pending home sales index declined 16 percent in November to a reading of 96, the first decline after nine consecutive months of gains.
MAKING SENSE OF THE STORY FOR CONSUMERS
• NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) is a barometer of future sales. Typically, there is a one- to two-month lag between the signing of a sales contract and the close of escrow. Although government incentives, low interest rates, and affordable home prices have attracted many buyers, especially first-timer buyers, to the market, historically sales decline during the winter months and begin to rise in the spring, and ultimately peak in the summer.
• Because of the government’s efforts to stimulate the housing market, some economists believe that housing prices will decline once the incentives come to an end. However, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®’ (C.A.R.) closely watched “2010 California Housing Market Forecast,” projected that the median home price in California will rise 3.3 percent to $280,000 in 2010 compared with a projected median of $271,000 in 2009.
• According to C.A.R.’s Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young, unlike the rest of the nation, home sales in California already bottomed out more than two years ago, and the median home price reached its trough in February 2009.
• Although home buyers should not focus solely on future home price appreciation, according to data collected by C.A.R. over the last 40 years, homeowners who purchase and live in their home for at least five years, have averaged an annual rate of return of nearly 12 percent.
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