After making a killing by accurately predicting the real estate collapse,   Bill Gross, Money Manager at Pimco, now sees real estate an investment opportunity.

According to CNBC.com, Bill Gross told the TV channel this morning,

Both commercial and residential real estate are reaching a bottoming point and possibly even prepared to turn higher, said Gross, CIO of Pacific Investment Management Co., or PIMCO, the world’s largest bond fund. With stocks likely to return 5 to 6 percent and bonds 3 to 4 percent, he said, investors would be wise to start looking at real estate opportunities. “Ultimately the riskier assets will be the less the risky assets,” he said. “I wouldn’t suggest moving into those particular sectors at the moment but ultimately risk and reward go together.” Lower debt and better lending rates will make real estate attractive, he added.

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Signs of recovery in the housing market and national economy keep popping up – and are even beginning to surprise veteran analysts on Wall Street and elsewhere.
Though economists had expected at the latest pending homes sale to be down – after all, February saw the worst weather in decades in large parts of the U.S. – the numbers actually took a big bounce.
The National Association of Realtors reported that pending home sales jumped 8.2 percent for the month and 17 percent higher than they were at the same time last year.
With the April 30 deadline for sales contracts to qualify for the two housing credits, analysts expect home sales activity to remain high. Lawrence Yun, cheif economist for the National Association of Realtors, says he thinks we may be in “the early stages of a second surge” of real estate transactions that could continue into mid-year.
But let’s be clear: Home sales are not only being pushed by tax credits. Far stronger impetus is coming from steadily improving conditions in the national economy and rising consumer perceptions that finally things are getting better.

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It is clear that this is the year of the short sale for the lower priced homes.

This short sale in San Juan Capistrano is $350,000 with 4 bedrooms and 2 baths.

More short sales hit the market every day, and many of them look like good deals.

But, there’s nothing short about a short sale. In fact, they are now complicating the real estate market in Orange County.

In his latest report, Altera Real Estate’s Steven Thomas said the following about short sales:

“There are 6,867 total pending sales in all of Orange County. Of those, 4,254 are short sales, 62%. Yet, only 27% of all closed residential resales in February were short sales. Most short sales are simply not closing. They are waiting on lender, or in many cases lenders, approval of the sale. Of the 4,254 pending short sales, only 757 have been pending for less than a month. 1,488 have been pending for over three months. The data does not even capture the short sales where a frustrated buyer walks away after waiting too long.”

How do things look in our neck of the woods?

Of the 122 homes to hit the market in Dana Point, San Clemente and San Juan Capistrano in the last two weeks, 24% of those homes for sale are short sales.

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Freddie Mac 4Q Loss Narrows

Freddie Mac posted a smaller loss last year than in 2008 and said for the third consecutive quarter that it won’t need to ask the government for additional bailout funds. But the company says conditions could worsen as foreclosures pick up later this year.

The mortgage company posted a net loss of $6.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2009 and $21.6 billion for the full year, excluding dividends paid to the government. While those losses remain daunting, they are an improvement from 2008, when the company posted a loss of $23.9 billion in the year ago fourth quarter and $50.1 billion for all of 2008.

The improvement came amid early signs of stabilization in the housing market. The company estimated that home prices fell 0.8% last year, versus an 11.7% decline in 2008. Still, Freddie Mac Chief Executive Charles E. Haldeman Jr. warned in a statement that the housing recovery “remains fragile, with significant downside risk posed by high unemployment and a potential large wave of foreclosures.” (Full Story…)

U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Edge Down

Fewer people fell behind on their home-mortgage payments in last year’s fourth quarter, a sign that the default crisis may be peaking, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Friday.

Separately, the Obama administration announced plans to provide $1.5 billion to housing agencies in five states hit hardest by the crisis that would fund programs to help people avoid foreclosure.

The trade group said 3.63% of mortgage borrowers were between 30 and 59 days overdue in the fourth quarter, down from 3.79% in the third quarter, based on its quarterly survey of lenders. Normally, that rate rises in the fourth quarter as heating bills and holiday expenses cause some people to fall behind.

The decline in this category of newly delinquent borrowers reflects a drop in the number of people losing their jobs, said Jay Brinkmann, the MBA’s chief economist. (Full Story)

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The Governments Effect on Housing

A recent real estate report indicates that consumers may be taking their time house hunting this winter, which some economists believe could lead to a “double dip” in home prices. A recent report from the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (NAR) showed that its pending home sales index declined 16 percent in November to a reading of 96, the first decline after nine consecutive months of gains.
MAKING SENSE OF THE STORY FOR CONSUMERS
• NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) is a barometer of future sales. Typically, there is a one- to two-month lag between the signing of a sales contract and the close of escrow. Although government incentives, low interest rates, and affordable home prices have attracted many buyers, especially first-timer buyers, to the market, historically sales decline during the winter months and begin to rise in the spring, and ultimately peak in the summer.
• Because of the government’s efforts to stimulate the housing market, some economists believe that housing prices will decline once the incentives come to an end. However, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®’ (C.A.R.) closely watched “2010 California Housing Market Forecast,” projected that the median home price in California will rise 3.3 percent to $280,000 in 2010 compared with a projected median of $271,000 in 2009.
• According to C.A.R.’s Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young, unlike the rest of the nation, home sales in California already bottomed out more than two years ago, and the median home price reached its trough in February 2009.
• Although home buyers should not focus solely on future home price appreciation, according to data collected by C.A.R. over the last 40 years, homeowners who purchase and live in their home for at least five years, have averaged an annual rate of return of nearly 12 percent.

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The Obama administration is trying to simplify the paperwork for people seeking lower home-mortgage payments in an effort to avert more foreclosures.

The Treasury outlined new guidelines Thursday aimed at streamlining requirements for mortgage relief under the administration’s Home Affordable Modification Program launched a year ago.

The guidelines specify that borrowers must provide three items to loan servicers, the companies that collect mortgage payments: a form requesting a loan modification, authorization for the servicer to seek tax information from the Internal Revenue Service and evidence of income, such as two recent pay stubs. Previously, some servicers have asked borrowers to fax in copies of their tax returns. Borrowers sometimes couldn’t find the needed tax forms or complained that servicers repeatedly lost material faxed to them.

The previous documentation requirements were “somewhat overwhelming” for some borrowers, says Morgan McCarty, head of mortgage servicing at Regions Financial Corp., a banking company based in Birmingham, Ala.

The Treasury also said that, effective June 1, servicers must collect the information before starting borrowers on three-month “trial” loan modifications, during which borrowers must show they can make the payments before being granted a permanent reduction in their loan costs. Many servicers have been starting trial modifications based on unverified information provided orally by the borrower, only to find later that the borrower wouldn’t or couldn’t provide documentation.

As of Dec. 31, about 900,000 borrowers had been given trial modifications but only 66,465 had been converted to a permanent fix. That largely reflects problems getting documentation. The Treasury acknowledged that some of those 900,000 borrowers won’t end up qualifying for a loan modification through the program.

As of Sept. 30, about 7.5 million households—about 14% of those with home loans—were behind on payments or in the process of foreclosure, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association, a trade group.

Many of those struggling borrowers owe far more to their lenders than the current value of their homes—a condition known as being “underwater”—and wonder whether it is worthwhile to keep paying. Micah Green, a partner at the law firm Patton Boggs in Washington who represents some large investors in mortgages, says the administration should revamp the program to put more stress on reducing principal owed by borrowers who can show that they would be able to stay current on a smaller, refinanced loan. In many cases, that would require the holders of both a first- and a second-lien loan to accept a write-down of the amount owed, a complicated process.

Treasury officials said Thursday they were looking at ways of helping underwater borrowers but haven’t found practical means of doing that on a large scale. “There are no simple solutions,” Herb Allison, an assistant Treasury secretary, said in a press briefing.

By JAMES R. HAGERTY at the WSJ

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Mortgage Rates Edged Down

Mortgage rates fell slightly this week, with the average rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages inching further below 5%, according to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey.

Paperwork Eased in Loan-Modification Program

The Obama administration is trying to simplify the paperwork for people seeking lower home-mortgage payments in an effort to avert more foreclosures.

The Treasury outlined new guidelines Thursday aimed at streamlining requirements for mortgage relief under the administration’s Home Affordable Modification Program launched a year ago.

The guidelines specify that borrowers must provide three items to loan servicers, the companies that collect mortgage payments: a form requesting a loan modification, authorization for the servicer to seek tax information from the Internal Revenue Service and evidence of income, such as two recent pay stubs. Previously, some servicers have asked borrowers to fax in copies of their tax returns. Borrowers sometimes couldn’t find the needed tax forms or complained that servicers repeatedly lost material faxed to them.

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California’s inventory of unsold, previously owned homes shrank to a five-year low in December, in another sign that the state may be coming out of its worst housing slump in decades.

The supply of unsold single-family homes dropped to 3.8 months from 5.6 months a year ago and 16.6 months in January 2008, when inventories were at a peak, according to estimates released Friday by the California Association of Realtors. The inventory levels are now at their lowest level since 2005, resulting in frenzied sales with multiple offers in some cities.

In Northern California’s Santa Clara County, where inventory has dropped to 50 days from 243 a year ago, Amanda Garcia said she and her 62-year-old father Luis Garcia finally gave up a nine-month search for a home last month, after they kept losing out on homes priced in the highly competitive sub-$500,000 market.

“It’s more like an auction nowadays,” said Ms. Garcia, 26, a medical coordinator from Milpitas, Calif. “They shouldn’t call it a house sale.”

California’s housing market is closely watched because it is the nation’s biggest and helps fuel both the state’s economy and the national building industry. With California still weighed down by economic problems, including a 12.4% unemployment rate, higher than the 10% rate nationwide, economists are looking at bellwethers like housing to determine when California will rebound.

Of course, any long-term revival in housing will depend on California’s ability to shake off its high unemployment and the continuing threat of more foreclosures. Some housing experts cautioned that inventories may be artificially low because many would-be sellers are waiting for the economy to improve before putting their homes on the market.

“I’m convinced that once the general public believes prices have bottomed out and are coming up, more people will put their homes on the market,” said Andrew LePage, an analyst at MDA DataQuick, a housing-data provider in La Jolla, Calif. “And that will probably coincide with the economy and job market improving.”

Although most home prices remain well below their pre-bust highs of three years ago, California’s overall housing market has shown signs of stabilizing since early last year. The median price of an existing, single-family home rose 8.4% from a year ago to $306,820, marking the second consecutive year-over-year increase and the 10th straight month-over-month jump, according to estimates by the state Realtors’ association.

Sales rose at a slower year-over-year rate of 1.7%, compared with double-digit gains in recent months. Sales have been powered, in part, by a federal tax credit of $8,000 for first-time buyers, which Congress extended until the end of April.

Some brokers attributed the sales slowdown to lean inventories. “Right now, we need more listings,” said Lianne Pinkston, a Coldwell Banker broker in Morgan Hill, Calif., south of San Jose. “I have an all-cash investor, and they’ve wanted to buy a duplex or four-plex, and they’ve been making all-cash offers for over the asking price, and they’re still not getting anything.”

The current inventory rate is running well under California’s historical average since the 1980s of about an eight-month supply of existing homes on the market. That’s partly because a once huge supply of foreclosures in the state has dwindled. In November, foreclosed properties accounted for 40% of all single-family sales, new and used, in California, compared with 58% in January, according to the most recent estimates by Zillow.com, a market tracker.

In general, California’s coastal markets performed better than inland markets. In Orange County, for example, Zillow estimates foreclosures dropped by more than one half to 20.6% of all single-family sales in November from 43.5% in January. In inland Merced County, foreclosures were also down, but to 69.9% of sales from 83.4% in January, according to Zillow.

The return to the kind of bidding wars that marked the state’s boom years in some coastal cities hasn’t been welcomed by home buyers. In Orange County, graphics designer Scott Butler put in one of 37 offers on a three-bedroom, two-bath home listed for $350,000 in early September. Mr. Butler bid full price for the home in Mission Viejo, Calif., and offered to put 20% down, but the winning bid went over $430,000, said his agent, Michael Caruso.

Mr. Butler, 39, who has since given up his search, said he was outbid on more than 20 other homes since early 2009. “It’s very discouraging,” he said.

Written by Jim Carlton at the Wall Street Journal

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Mortgage rates fell this week, with the third consecutive decline pushing the average for 30-year fixed-rate loans back below 5%, according to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey.

Treasury yields have declined recently, and mortgage rates tend to follow the yields.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.99% for the week ended Thursday, down from last week’s 5.06% average and 5.12% a year ago. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages were 4.4%, down from 4.45% and 4.8%, respectively.

Five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages averaged 4.27%, down from last week’s 4.32% and 5.24% a year earlier. One-year mortgages stood at 4.32%, down from 4.39% last week and 4.92% a year ago.

Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist, said in a news release: “ARM rates eased along with shorter-term rates, as the federal funds futures market indicates no increase in the Federal Reserve’s target rate following its upcoming committee meeting on January 26 and 27.”

According to a separate survey released by the Mortgage Bankers Association on Wednesday, the volume of mortgage applications rose a seasonally adjusted 9.1% last week, compared with the week before.

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