15 April 2010, 12:27 pm
- Robert Larsen 4/12/2010
Real Estate Outlook: Pending Sales Up
- Mark Simon of Emery Financial Incorporated
Signs of recovery in the housing market and national economy keep popping up – and are even beginning to surprise veteran analysts on Wall Street and elsewhere.
Though economists had expected at the latest pending homes sale to be down – after all, February saw the worst weather in decades in large parts of the U.S. – the numbers actually took a big bounce.
The National Association of Realtors reported that pending home sales jumped 8.2 percent for the month and 17 percent higher than they were at the same time last year.
With the April 30 deadline for sales contracts to qualify for the two housing credits, analysts expect home sales activity to remain high. Lawrence Yun, cheif economist for the National Association of Realtors, says he thinks we may be in “the early stages of a second surge” of real estate transactions that could continue into mid-year.
But let’s be clear: Home sales are not only being pushed by tax credits. Far stronger impetus is coming from steadily improving conditions in the national economy and rising consumer perceptions that finally things are getting better.
24 February 2010, 2:56 pm
- Robert Larsen 2/24/2010
Freddie Mac 4Q Loss Narrows
Freddie Mac posted a smaller loss last year than in 2008 and said for the third consecutive quarter that it won’t need to ask the government for additional bailout funds. But the company says conditions could worsen as foreclosures pick up later this year.
The mortgage company posted a net loss of $6.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2009 and $21.6 billion for the full year, excluding dividends paid to the government. While those losses remain daunting, they are an improvement from 2008, when the company posted a loss of $23.9 billion in the year ago fourth quarter and $50.1 billion for all of 2008.
The improvement came amid early signs of stabilization in the housing market. The company estimated that home prices fell 0.8% last year, versus an 11.7% decline in 2008. Still, Freddie Mac Chief Executive Charles E. Haldeman Jr. warned in a statement that the housing recovery “remains fragile, with significant downside risk posed by high unemployment and a potential large wave of foreclosures.” (Full Story…)
U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Edge Down
Fewer people fell behind on their home-mortgage payments in last year’s fourth quarter, a sign that the default crisis may be peaking, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Friday.
Separately, the Obama administration announced plans to provide $1.5 billion to housing agencies in five states hit hardest by the crisis that would fund programs to help people avoid foreclosure.
The trade group said 3.63% of mortgage borrowers were between 30 and 59 days overdue in the fourth quarter, down from 3.79% in the third quarter, based on its quarterly survey of lenders. Normally, that rate rises in the fourth quarter as heating bills and holiday expenses cause some people to fall behind.
The decline in this category of newly delinquent borrowers reflects a drop in the number of people losing their jobs, said Jay Brinkmann, the MBA’s chief economist. (Full Story)
29 January 2010, 12:14 pm
- Robert Larsen 1/25/2010
Mortgage Rates Edged Down
Mortgage rates fell slightly this week, with the average rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages inching further below 5%, according to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey.
Paperwork Eased in Loan-Modification Program
The Obama administration is trying to simplify the paperwork for people seeking lower home-mortgage payments in an effort to avert more foreclosures.
The Treasury outlined new guidelines Thursday aimed at streamlining requirements for mortgage relief under the administration’s Home Affordable Modification Program launched a year ago.
The guidelines specify that borrowers must provide three items to loan servicers, the companies that collect mortgage payments: a form requesting a loan modification, authorization for the servicer to seek tax information from the Internal Revenue Service and evidence of income, such as two recent pay stubs. Previously, some servicers have asked borrowers to fax in copies of their tax returns. Borrowers sometimes couldn’t find the needed tax forms or complained that servicers repeatedly lost material faxed to them.
Click to the Read Full Story
18 January 2010, 11:09 pm
- Robert Larsen 1/18/2010
With one of the key measures below the benchmark for the second week in a row, would-be home buyers face the best rates since the spring, and the statistics continue to show it. Last week, reports were released re-affirming the notion that interest rates will remain low through 2010, but how low is low? Well right now, mortgage rates are as low as they have been all year and many buyer’s are trying to take advantage. Anyone selling, showing, or buying a home can tell you that people are out looking to purchase. Even with the current downpour of rain, prospective home-buyer’s are on the search. And, to top it off, I don’t see things slowing down. As we approach March and April, we will see more and more people taking advantage of the tax credit. Combined with the seasonal spring and summer upswing in real estate activity, the Orange County median home price will continue to rise.
As reported in the The 18th annual survey by the Association of Foreign Investors in Real Estate, the United States is voted to be the world’s best real estate investment opportunity.
- 51% see U.S. as best opportunity for capital appreciation (vs. 37% in 2008, 26% in 2007, and 23% in 2006.)
- U.K. was 2nd best bet country with 30% of the votes. China was third at 10%.
- Two-thirds of those polled plan to increase their U.S. investments in 2010 compared to 2009. (62% increase for equity investments; 83% for real estate debt.)
- Most favored American cities? D.C. then New York, followed by San Francisco, Boston … then LA.
- 33% are more optimistic about the U.S. real estate market than they were in June 2009; only 6% are more pessimistic.
Also in the headlines…
Lennar Reports Profit as New Orders Increase
Home builder Lennar Corp. swung to a surprise fiscal fourth-quarter profit, breaking a two-year string of losses, as the company benefited from hefty one-time gains.
Chief Executive Stuart Miller also said the company experienced its first year-over-year increase in new orders, 3%, since the start of 2006.
Mr. Miller added that the housing market continued “to move toward stabilization as more confident home buyers took advantage of increased affordability and the $8,000 federal tax credit” that was extended in November.
15 January 2010, 1:56 pm
O.C. home prices up $69,000 vs. bottom
For the 22 business days ending Dec. 23 – DataQuick’s latest homebuying report — Orange County saw …
$439,000 median selling price that is +9.7% vs. a year ago but -32% below June 2007’s peak of $645,000.
The most recent median is 19% ($69,000) above the cyclical low hit in January 2009 at $370,000 — a current bottom that was -43% below the peak.
Prices fell on a year-over-year basis from Sept. 2007 through August. (Worst at -31.5% in August 2008.)
Single-family homes resell for 32% less than their peak pricing (June ‘07) while condos sell 36% below their peak in March 2006. Builder prices for new homes are 39% below their February ‘05 top.
In this most recent period, O.C. shoppers bought 3,041 residences — that is +10.4% vs. year-ago buying activity. (From 1997-2006, monthly sales averaged 4,304 per month.)
13 January 2010, 5:40 pm
- Robert Larsen
After an unexpected error, the Orange County Coastal News blog is back! Delivering the most relevant updates and analysis on the OC real estate market. If you would like to receive market updates that are no longer available on the blog, feel free to email us.
